Polymarket's prediction market has Bayern striker Harry Kane first, ahead of Barcelona's Lamine Yamal and Lionel Messi.
The 2026 Ballon d'Or will be handed out on October 26 at the London Palladium Theatre, and UEFA has confirmed the ceremony starts at 8 PM local time. London was chosen in recognition of English forward Stanley Matthews, who received the very first Ballon d'Or in 1956. The 2026 edition also marks the 70th anniversary of the award, and it breaks from decades of ceremonies held in Paris.
The ceremony falls the day after Barcelona host Real Madrid in the first Clásico of the season, ESPN reports. The award covers the period from August 3, 2025, to July 19, 2026, the date of the World Cup final.
Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane sits at the top of the betting predictions heading into the ceremony, according to Polymarket Sports, as Legit.ng reports. Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal is second, and Lionel Messi third, despite playing outside European football. Real Madrid striker Kylian Mbappé and Rodri complete the top five.
According to ESPN, this is among the most open Ballon d'Or contests of the past two decades. Yamal scored 25 goals and made 20 assists in 57 games. At 19, he won his third LaLiga title, was named LaLiga's best player, lifted the Spanish Supercopa again and won his first World Cup. Mbappé averaged nearly a goal a game, with 58 goals in 60 matches and 13 assists in 2025-26. Neither Real Madrid nor France won a major title, though, and both finished the campaign without one for a second successive season.
AS reports that Mbappé has been awarded the Onze d'Or, the prize voted for by readers of the French magazine Onze Mondial, and that he succeeds Ousmane Dembélé. He finished comfortably ahead of the PSG pair João Neves and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Onze Mondial pointed to his more than 40 goals and his World Cup, where he became the tournament's all-time leading scorer. AS notes that the Onze d'Or has often matched the eventual Ballon d'Or winner, while calling this year's race one of the most wide-open in recent memory.
Legit.ng also reports that African football legend Austin Jay-Jay Okocha has picked Mbappé as the potential winner. Okocha argued that there is no clear favourite, but that Mbappé's three Golden Boots make a case for him.
Legit.ng reports that the ballot among football journalists closed on September 28, and that UEFA describes the London event as the formal announcement of a winner already decided on paper. ESPN adds that the vote is held among a panel of 100 journalists from around the world. The women's Ballon d'Or will be presented at the London Palladium too, along with prizes for the best young player, goalkeeper, coach and club in both the men's and women's games.
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